UK heatwaves predicted to soar above world average: The UK’s summer temperatures may rise 50% quicker than average warming increases all over the rest of the world.
That’s according to the worrisome decision reached in a current study published by researchers from the University of Bristol & the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
The scientists utilised data files from the Met Office’s UK Climate Projections, particularly the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), in order to examin how the magnitude & effects of the UK’s heatwaves are spurred on by greenhouse gas emissions as well as how the regularity & severity of these events is probable to pick up in the future, inspite of comparison on a similar basis to the rest of the world.
They caution that the country could see a “future of extreme heatwaves”, that may pose extreme health risks. The UK charted over 3,400 excess deaths because of heatwaves between 2016 & 2019.
Lead Author Dr Alan Kennedy-Asser, Research Associate in Bristol’s School of Geographical Sciences, stated: “Faster rates of warming in extremes compared to the global average temperatures have been shown in research before, however this evaluation of UKCP18 suggests these new simulations are particularly effective at simulating the UK’s recent summer heat extremes. This increases confidence in the suitability of these model projections and provides some of the clearest evidence that this amplification of summer extremes is happening in the UK.
“So often the conversation about climate change revolves around the global average temperature – such as the Paris Agreement targets of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Seeing these results really hits home as unlike the global average temperature, which is hard to relate to, we have likely all experienced the recent hot summers and can imagine how these changes might impact us.”
Graham Craig, Senior Policy Advisor on Decarbonisation for the Welsh Government, remarked: “Welsh Ministers will update Wales’s statutory emissions reduction pathway early next year, following advice from the Climate Change Committee in December. Dr Kennedy-Asser’s work is helping Welsh Government officials bring emissions targets and carbon budgets to life, painting a picture of summer heat extremes in Wales at 1.5 °C, 2 °C and beyond.”
UK heatwaves predicted to soar above world average