Daily Energy Market Report Wednesday 8th August 2018

 

The NBP forward curve has had a bullish open from the Prompt to the Far with plenty of support to be found.

The system has opened marginally long and demand is only 1mcm below seasonal norms, CCGT demand has fallen 8.1mcm easing power burn demand as wind levels are gradually increasing as we move towards the weekend.

Langeled imports are 18mcm lower day – on day with no scheduled maintenance whilst IUK exports to Belgium remain flat at 35mcm as the NBP remains as a transit country for Norwegian flows, as the Prompt remains at/below the Front – month it would suggest August gas will have a higher priority for storage injections.

The ever-bearish GBP continues to be hit on multiple currency pairs with the hope of a Brexit deal dwindling day – on day; as GBP/EUR slides this provides a greater incentive for Continental buyers to take greater positions at the NBP thus lifting contracts.

Bullish fuels continue to support the curve, API2 coal remains supported by falling French nuclear capacity and a bullish EU power complex.

Market participants will be playing close attention to the US crude and distillate inventories at 15:30 today following recent data illustrating falling Saudi production and a decline on the US rig count and the looming sanctions on Iranian crude sales taking effect on the 4th November.

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