Daily Energy Market Report Wednesday 7th Nov 18. Bullish open on the NBP this morning of the back of an unplanned outage at Kollsnes and strength in wider commodities.
Both benchmark contracts for coal and carbon have risen since yesterdays close with API2 2019 Coal at $90.50/tonne and Dec – 18 EUA’s at €18.12/tonne.
However, longer term the fundamentals still look bearish with the drivers being milder weather and weaker global demand.
The same can be said of oil with global demand forecasts and the Iran sanction exemptions driving Brent downwards.
The system is 6mcm long with demand forecast at 217.8mcm, 14.2mcm below seasonal normal of 232mcm.
LDZ demand is at 147.4mcm, 5mcm higher than yesterday.
Gas for power demand has also lifted by around 9mcm to 48.2mcm.
LNG Send out and UKCS is the UK’s main sources of supply today with nominations of 29.3mcm and 74.7mcm respectively.
LNG send out is strong off the back of the UK expecting two cargoes this week.
Langeled has been revised to 55.3mcm following the unplanned outage at Kollsnes where 10mcm of capacity has been taken offline WD, it is expected to last 3-4 days.
This morning’s temperature forecasts remain relatively unchanged with UK temperatures above seasonal normal for the next 2 weeks.
The 45-day forecast is also a mild one with any substantial cold looking unlikely.
One final thing to note today is the US midterm elections.
The results have weakened the dollar, which should lift oil, and in turn the NBP, however the bearish sentiment in the oil market has kept a lid on any significant gains.
The Republicans have lost control of the House of Representatives with the Democrats now having the ability to block Trump’s agenda.
Daily Energy Market Report Wednesday 7th Nov 18 brought to you by British Utilities