Daily Energy Market Report Friday 9th Nov 18. Bullish open on the NBP again this morning predominantly off the back of a predicted colder 45-day weather forecast coming to fruition despite bearish moves in coal and Brent.
Models were showing areas of high pressure North of the continent yesterday with the colder weather materialising in most recent forecasts.
Late November is when temperatures are expected to drop and this has resulted in gains on the prompt and near curve.
Surprisingly we are also seeing gains on the far curve despite strong losses in coal and carbon overnight.
Coal is down off the back of weaker Asian demand and high European stock levels with carbon holding strength as weaker coal becomes a more attractive option for power generation, more EUAs are being bought up to cover off emissions from the dirtier fuel.
Brent crude has fallen overnight on the back of rising supply with strong US production.
Concerns over an economic slowdown leading to a global over supply is also driving the market.
GBP has also weakened against major currencies this morning off the back of negative Brexit sentiment with Theresa May highlighting the possibility of a customs border in the Irish Sea to the DUP.
Finally, the UK is again reliant on UKCS flows and LNG send out with the system slightly long at 2.9mcm.
Langeled is still flowing at a reduced level of around 65mcm with the outage at Kollsnes taking 14mcm of capacity offline.
Gas for power demand is down 19mcm day on day with strong wind generation today.
Daily Energy Market Report Friday 9th Nov 18 brought to you by British Utilities