HISTORIC FACTORS – Leading up To Today’s Energy Prices 14th November 2017
7th November – Political uncertainty in Saudi Arabia (World’s largest Crude Oil Exporter) and fears of a tightening market sent global Crude prices to the highest since Summer 2015. Brent Crude traded above $64 barrel.
28th September – French Nuclear units were ordered to temporarily shut down, as soon as possible. Causing gains on Power prices, which filtered through to Gas.
25th September – Oil prices rose to a 26 month high – caused by Turkey’s threat to cut Crude flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to the rest of the world.
20th September 2017 – Reduction in Power burn, as expectations of high wind generation are assisted by Hurricane Maria.
25th August 2017 – Oil prices rose, as the US Oil industry prepared for the arrival of Hurricane Harvey. Production facilities were expected to shut down in preparation, with expectations the closures would last if the storm caused extensive damage.
7th August 2017 – Gassco – the Norwegian gas system operator, modified the end date for a planned Field facility outage, adding support to the Gas prices.
2nd August 2017 – Another major outage for Kollsnes cut Gas flows by 51mcm/day, raising spot prices.
26th July 2017 – An extension to unplanned maintenance at the Kollsnes Gas field in Norway was extended out until 1st October 2017, after initial expectations of it to be back online that day.
25th July 2017 – Oil prices rose, as OPEC led meeting resulted in Saudi Arabia pledging to decrease exports from Aug-17 onwards, and several other members agreeing to boost compliance to tackle global supply glut and price flagging.
20th June 2017 – Centrica made the decision to close the UK Rough Gas storage site permanently. After numerous tests, it was decided that the facility was not safe to return to injection and storage operations.
8th June 2017 – 2 Qatar LNG cargoes which were destined for South Hook were diverted.
5th June 2017 – Sharp rise in prices, as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Yemen and the United Arab Emirates are said to have cut diplomatic ties with Qatar following claims the country could have ties to terrorism.
2nd June 2017 – Oil prices fell on the back of President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the global climate change pact. It is thought that this could potentially lead to more crude drilling in the US, increasing the current global supply glut.
15th May 2017 – An extension of output cuts was agreed by Saudi Arabia and Russia (the world’s top 2 Oil producers) to extend current cuts for another 9 months, up until March 2018 – all to try and control the global supply glut. This was all to try and control the global supply glut. Oil reacted with a sharp increase on the back of the news.
12th April 2017 – Announcements made that Rough will not restart injection operations in the 2017/18 storage year. Based on safety and failure tests and extensive discussions, CSL decided that that was the best way forward.
4th April 2017 – The severe tropical storm, Cyclone Debbie in Australia caused massive supply disruption for Coal.
2nd March 2017 – Reports were released on 1st March 2017 stating that Trump was set to target certain Obama-era regulations. Including the federal coal mining ban and cuts on carbon emissions.
16th February 2017– Centrica announced that Rough (Britain’s largest natural gas storage site) would be unavailable for Gas injection until at least 1/7/17. Testing was ongoing to assess the safety and condition of the asset which is very old yet still very important to the Gas industry.
31st January 2017 – Colder than seasonal normal weather, lower than expected renewable output and concerns over storage availability, all created supply concerns.
Potential Bearish Price Drivers ↓
Potential Bullish Price Drivers ↑